| Notebooks exceed PC forecasts
19 July, 2007
By Liam Lahey
Following stronger-than-anticipated shipments of
notebook computers in the first quarter, iSuppli Corp.
has upgraded its 2007 PC shipment forecast.
El Segundo, California-based iSuppli predicted global
PC shipments would rise to 264 million units in 1Q07,
up 11.2 per cent from 239 million in 2006. The previous
forecast envisioned 10.7 per cent growth for the year.
Demand was slightly higher than iSuppli had initially
estimated, explained Matthew Wilkins, a principal
analyst, compute platforms, iSuppli.
"Notebook PC shipments rose to 21.8 million
units in the first quarter of 2007, up 23 per cent
from 17.7 million in the first quarter of 2006,"
he said. "First quarter notebook PC shipments
were 3 per cent higher than we had previously anticipated.
There were concerns that the second quarter release
of Intel Corp.'s new Santa Rosa notebook microprocessor
platform might cause buyers to delay purchases originally
set for the first quarter. However, Santa Rosa did
not have a significant negative effect on first quarter
shipments."
The imminent introduction of a new platform or technology
is always watched carefully, Wilkins said of Santa
Rosa.
"On occasion, it can impact shipments of current
products as buyers delay a planned purchase, choosing
to wait for the new technology instead. Beyond this,
Santa Rosa is a technology driver, in that it will
help shipments of notebooks," he remarked. "It
offers improved performance thus increasing the value
proposition of the notebook PC platform."
iSuppli said notebooks would account for almost 40
per cent of global 2007 PC market shipments, with
emerging regions leading the charge: The BRIC regions
-- Brazil, Russia, India, and China.
In a related note, iSuppli also reissued its forecast
for Solid-State Drives (SSDs) in notebook PCs. iSuppli
predicted the penetration of SSDs in notebooks would
reach 12 per cent by the end of 2009. In contrast,
penetration of Hybrid Hard Drives (HHD) in notebook
PCs would reach 35 per cent by the end of 2009.
SSDs are intended as replacements for conventional
Hard Disk Drives (HDDs), using flash memory instead
of traditional rotating media. HHDs employ flash memory
in combination with HDDs, to create a hybrid solution.
"SSDs and HHDs have a clear performance advantage
compared to traditional HDDs," said Krishna Chander,
iSuppli senior analyst, storage research. "Although,
in the near term, their cost will remain a prohibitive
factor for mass-market adoption of SSDs and HHDs,
this cost gap will narrow during the coming years,
leading to their wider usage." While SSDs are
receiving much attention in light of advancements
in their storage capacity, Chander advises that the
performance and capacity increases of HHD drives will
be faster in the near term than those of SSDs."
The penetration of HHDs in notebook PCs would rise
more quickly in the near term than for SSDs, given
that HDD vendors are increasing both the capacity
and areal density of their notebook products in 2007
and beyond, Chander said.
"Furthermore, HHDs cost less to produce and
offer a level of data integrity that can only be delivered
by tried-and-true HDD technology," she continued.
"Prices for notebook PC HDDs have dropped dramatically
in the first half of 2007, further distancing HHDs
from SSDs in the short term, in terms of both absolute
capacities and cost per gigabyte."
SSDs and HHDs represent two different forms of flash
data storage on PCs. Other solutions are being introduced
as well, officials said. Another approach to PC flash
memory storage, Intel Corp.'s Robson -- also known
as Turbo Memory -- is expected to take off in 2007.
Because any HDD can work with Turbo Memory, this solution
will penetrate the market faster than HHDs, which
still is undergoing standardization issues.
The combination of SSDs, HHDs, Turbo Memory and other
solutions will propel flash memory's penetration of
notebook-PC data storage to nearly 60 per cent by
the fourth quarter of 2009, iSuppli said. Complete
replacement of HDDs by SDDs would represent a small
portion of the total penetration number during this
timeframe.
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