| Global HDD storage to quadruple capacity
shipped by 2011: IDC
23 May, 2007
By Liam Lahey
By 2011, the hard disk drive (HDD) industry will
more than quadruple the total HDD capacity shipped
in 2006 to meet the growing storage requirements of
an expanding digital universe, according to recent
figures from Framingham, Mass.-based IDC.
Worldwide HDD unit shipments would increase to 675
million units in 2011, while revenue would rise to
approximately $37 billion (U.S.), officials said.
"The expanding digital universe creates a tremendous
opportunity for HDD storage used in PCs, enterprise
systems, and personal storage devices," said
John Rydning, research manager for IDC's hard disk
drives program. "Despite challenges from competing
storage technologies, volatile consumer electronic
markets, and enigmatic changes ahead for the computing
environment, the fundamental need for additional storage
capacity worldwide will continue to generate solid
HDD demand."
IDC said in its' latest report on the subject --
"Worldwide Hard Disk Drive 2007-2011 Forecast
and Analysis: Creating Space for an Expanding Digital
Universe" -- the HDD industry needs to remain
vigilant to several emerging trends and realities
including aggressive NAND-flash price reductions that
would severely curtail the market opportunity for
HDDs in handheld devices, and a possible increased
penetration of solid state disk drives (SSDs) into
traditional HDD markets.
Solid state disk drives are just beginning to be
offered by the major PC OEMs to notebook PC customers,
Rydning explained. Compared to HDDs, SSD prices are
very high today, but are falling rapidly as the price
of NAND flash declines.
"Nonetheless, in 2011 notebook PC buyers will
still pay a premium for an SSD compared to an equivalent
capacity HDD," he said. "The question is
how much more are notebook users willing to spend?
The penetration of SSDs into the notebook PC market
depends on the answer to this question."
Moreover, growing adoption by enterprise storage
customers of both small form factor HDDs to optimize
performance and power, and high capacity desktop-class
HDDs to optimize capacity and power. The risk of installing
excess HDD manufacturing capacity that would only
serve to exacerbate HDD price erosion, and inhibit
industry revenue growth.
"The HDD industry historically has a tendency
to overproduce relative to demand, although more restraint
has been shown in recent years as the industry has
consolidated. When excess capacity exists, particularly
in certain HDD segments such as mobile 2.5-inch HDDs
today, ASP declines are severe as HDD OEMs try to
protect market share," Rydning said. "Adding
additional manufacturing capacity beyond market demand
only exacerbates HDD price erosion as each HDD OEM
seeks to maximize a return on investment."
The HDD industry is intensely focused on increasing
both worldwide manufacturing capacity and the capacity
of disk drives to meet the growing demand for storage
capacity, he added.
Meanwhile, IDC also said the long-term outlook for
the total worldwide tape automation market calls for
modest growth in unit shipments and a declining market
value through 2011. IDC said shipments would increase
at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.4 per
cent, totaling nearly 154,500 units in 2011, while
market value is expected to decrease at a 5.7 per
cent CAGR through 2011.
"Hardware-based disk backup solutions, tighter
integration of virtual tape library application software,
and the trend away from direct-attached tape solutions
will adversely impact the tape automation market on
the long-term," said Robert Amatruda, research
director, tape and removable storage at IDC. "It
is therefore imperative for tape automation vendors
to design tape libraries that interoperate with disk-based
solutions or allow for software-enabled VTL applications.
Tape automation vendors that provide complementary
disk and tape solutions will benefit from a broader
base of customer spending for data-protection products."
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